I'm not sure you can be confident in a trough in demand. The google search trend shows shows no uptick. The entire thesis depends on this and seems like it's only gotten worse with late april. I'm still looking for signs of a trough in boats but don't see much evidence yet.
Tbh, among the four write-ups I've posted, my conviction in MBUU is indeed the lowest. However, I would say that only the NT portion of the thesis depends on the demand trough. If the entire thesis were dependent on that, I would have pitched a recreational boating basket. The stock has been beaten down largely due to Tommy's lawsuit, which is now nearly fully resolved. During a Raymond James fireside chat in March, it was mentioned that the signs of a trough were conclusive, and they expected inventory to normalize by September. It reports their Q4 next Thursday. It's the first print under the new CEO, so I anticipate some volatility around it. Let's see if the guidance conservatism holds up.
Great work!
Thank you very much, Rich!
I'm not sure you can be confident in a trough in demand. The google search trend shows shows no uptick. The entire thesis depends on this and seems like it's only gotten worse with late april. I'm still looking for signs of a trough in boats but don't see much evidence yet.
Tbh, among the four write-ups I've posted, my conviction in MBUU is indeed the lowest. However, I would say that only the NT portion of the thesis depends on the demand trough. If the entire thesis were dependent on that, I would have pitched a recreational boating basket. The stock has been beaten down largely due to Tommy's lawsuit, which is now nearly fully resolved. During a Raymond James fireside chat in March, it was mentioned that the signs of a trough were conclusive, and they expected inventory to normalize by September. It reports their Q4 next Thursday. It's the first print under the new CEO, so I anticipate some volatility around it. Let's see if the guidance conservatism holds up.