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Napkin Reports #2
NYSE:WNC and a Highest Priority Opportunity
Hello. This email includes reviews of two stocks I've evaluated this past week. I passed on the first, Wabash, as I was hoping to uncover signs of a cyclical recovery but didn’t find compelling evidence. The second, however, has been given a “Highest Priority” rating and is a strong candidate for February’s write-up. For this reason, the company’s name has been redacted for free subscribers. While a few pieces still need to come together, it appears to offer a rare and compelling opportunity, provided no thesis breaker emerges during the final research stages.
Thanks for reading, and I hope you find this valuable.
REPORT #1
WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION | NYSE:WNC

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PASS. Founded in 1985 as a dry van trailer manufacturer, WNC has since diversified into adjacent verticals, focusing on efficient and sustainable transportation solutions built with lightweight materials to enhance fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. While management attributed rising demand to stricter fuel economy standards and domestic reshoring trends, the transportation industry in the U.S., including trucking, remains highly cyclical, with trailer demand tied directly to freight volumes. Since mid-2022, the freight market has been in a downcycle, with declining freight volumes and average truckload spot rates. Despite management's assertion that a cyclical bottom has been reached, trailer production remains pressured, and freight volumes show no signs of recovery. The industry’s LSD-to-MSD upcycle projections, combined with WNC’s market share losses and its failure to scale the high-margin, subscription-based Trailers as a Service model for on-demand parts and services, cast doubt on the company’s new go-to-market brand strategy. As such, there are likely better ways to take advantage of the aforementioned tailwinds.
If you have any questions or feedback, don't hesitate to reach out via email at [email protected].
Until next time,
The Tiger’s Prey
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NAPKIN REPORTS
"I've felt that before people buy a stock, they should take a piece of paper and simply write […] out what their reasoning is, and they should be able to get it all on one side of one piece of paper. In fact, they should be able to get it into a paragraph."
A good investment thesis should be concise enough to fit on the back of a napkin. Napkin Reports aim to filter ideas for further research through brief, surface-level reviews. Once an idea with a rough hypothesis is identified, the next step is to assess the researchability of the situation, the inherent attractiveness of the idea, and whether additional time should be spent on it. Napkin Reports apply this process systematically, passing 2-3 stocks per issue through a front-end screening mechanism to allocate time and capital to the best risk-adjusted ideas. Each filtering process is summarized into a single paragraph with one of four outputs: (1) highest priority, (2) proceed, (3) monitor, or (4) pass.