Idea Thesaurus #30

Hello. As most of you know by now, I tend to avoid making quarterly calls. Due to the wide range of potential outcomes, that’s not a game I want to play. However, with STRM reporting tomorrow, I wanted to recap what I’ve shared with you over the past three months:

• In September, the company experienced several contract terminations, pushing their EBITDA breakeven guidance back by four quarters to H2 '25.

• At the time, their soft guidance suggested breakeven ARR run-rate would be achieved by early 2025, contradicting their official profitability guidance.

• Last month, the company amended its minimum adj. EBITDA covenant to breakeven by January, effectively pulling their breakeven guidance forward from H2 '25 to Q1 through this revised loan agreement.

If management has executed properly and communicates any progress clearly, profitability guidance will be raised tomorrow. Notably, last year, the Q4 release was postponed by a few days to announce a major win alongside the quarterly print. This year, the release was initially expected on December 10.

That said, with microcaps, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Poor execution or miscommunication could have severe consequences for the stock. Whatever the outcome, tomorrow will undoubtedly be a day of reflection and learning.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you find this valuable.

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Until next time,
The Tiger’s Prey

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WEEKLY IDEA THESAURUS ISSUES

Idea Thesaurus is an idea generator that aggregates 20+ high signal-to-noise ratio idea screens of U.S.-listed stocks. It serves as the initial step in a robust and repeatable fundamental investment process. While occasional opportunities may arise from various idea sourcing activities, such as reading the business press, scrolling through Fintwit, or scanning new 52wk lows, each Idea Thesaurus issue focuses on systematically and consistently monitoring the most actionable event-driven stock screens.